To some surprise, Kentucky should actually be on a level playing field when it comes to their offensive line, rushing attack and punting. However, the major separation of these two teams comes down to coaching, pass catches and quarterback play.
That’s nothing against what Kentucky brings to the table. It’s instead much-deserved recognition for the game’s best coach, arguably the country’s best weapons and one of the SEC’s best quarterbacks.
Nick Saban is a defensive mastermind, Alabama’s pass catches can ignite 75-yard touchdowns in a matter of seconds and Mac Jones leads the SEC in QBR.
If Kentucky is to have any chance on Saturday, they’ll need career moments from head coach Mark Stoops, his offensive weapons and veteran quarterback Terry Wilson.
According to Pregame.com, Kentucky opened as a 29.5-point underdog on the road at Alabama. This week the line has stayed relatively level, moving slightly to a 30-point spread. The over/under total opened at 58 and has stayed the same throughout the week.
ESPN’s Football Power Index appears to believe there’s a “chance,” giving Kentucky a 3.2% chance of victory.
- Kentucky is 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 5 games.
- Kentucky is 0-6 SU in their last 6 games against Alabama.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky’s last 7 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 7 games this season.
- Kentucky is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played in November.
- Kentucky is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played in week 12.
- Kentucky is 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games played on a Saturday.
- Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Alabama’s last 9 games.
- Alabama is 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.
- Alabama is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Alabama is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games this season.
- Alabama is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Southeastern conference.
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Alabama’s last 6 games played in November.
- The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Alabama’s last 18 games played in week 12.
- Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Saturday.
Pete Fiutak of College Football News actually sees Kentucky putting some points on the board, but ultimately calls for a blowout of 41-17 Alabama.
However, Cobb, Dodd and Patterson did side with Kentucky in terms of the 30-point spread. Fornelli, Kercheval, Palm and Sallee all went with Alabama in blowout fashion.
Juan Jose Rodriguez of Athlon Sports is looking at the Kentucky side of the spread, too, but still seeing a sizable victory by Alabama at 45-23.
The Lexington Herald-Leader’s Mark Story isn’t far off, calling for a 45-13 victory by the nation’s top-team.
Following suit with that trend is Aaron Gershon with Big Blue Insider, predicting a 42-13 outcome.
These experts are giving Kentucky quite a bit of credit on the offensive side of the football. Granted the offense looked efficient last week, but we shouldn’t have expected anything less against the winless Vanderbilt Commodores. This week, the Wildcats will face the entire opposite of last week’s opponent. A literal NFL factory of college football players led by the greatest coach in the league. I’m all for optimism, but just can’t see it here.
Final Score: Alabama 37, Kentucky 6