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Iowa State MBB Analytics Report – Week 11 (1/20/20)

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You can read last week’s analytics report here.

Jan 15th: Iowa State (8-7): 55 @ #2 Baylor (13-1): 68

It has been very difficult to pull anything positive from Iowa State’s recent string of bad losses, and this one was no different. You can check out my own full post game recap here, but it’s not going to give you the answers–I don’t think anything or anyone will at this point.

Continuing with the same pattern all year, the Cyclones three point shooting killed them again, as they finished shooting 26.1% from behind the arc on the night. Defensively, ISU came to play… sorta. Overall they held Baylor to one of their lowest scoring halves of the season (in the first half). The second half obviously got much worse as Baylor opened the door wide open.

Michael Jacobson was able to be efficient in his small amount of usage, as he was the highest rated offensive player on the Cyclones–finishing with five points on 2-4 shooting. As Davion Mitchell’s offensive rating of 136 was too much for Iowa State to slow down.

Jan. 18th: Iowa State (8-8): 52 @ #23 Texas Tech (11-5): 72

The mess continued to grow as the Cyclones struggled once again Saturday, in Lubbock. You can read our full post-game recap here.

The game couldn’t have started much worse as the Cyclones fell quick, trailing 2-11 before the first media timeout. George Conditt IV picked up two quick fouls as well as a couple turnovers, as his early season efficiency seems like something of the past.

To put it lightly, this game was disgusting. ISU shot a putrid 13.6% from three, while allowing the Red Raiders to shoot 42.9% from behind the arc. Tyrese Haliburton was the only Cyclone starter to finish with an offensive rating of 100 or better. Texas Tech danced all over the Cyclones grave as they had four players with an offensive rating of 126 or better as they walloped Iowa State in every facet of the game.

  • Currently 63rd ranked team in the country on KenPom *(compared to 56th last week)
  • 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency (109.4) *(26th last week)
  • 110th in adjusted defensive efficiency (98.1) *(115th last week)
  • George Conditt IV is 55th in the country *(4th in the Big 12) in Offensive Rebounding Percentage (13.2) *53rd last week
  • George Conditt IV is 15th in the country *(2nd in the Big 12) in BLK% (12.96) *14th last week
  • George Conditt IV is 61st in the country *(3rd in the Big 12) in 2P FG% (64.9) *54th last week
  • Tyrese Haliburton is 99th in the country *(3rd in the Big 12) in Offensive Rating (120.0) *38th last week
  • Tyrese Haliburton is 21st in the country *(2nd in the Big 12) in Assist Rate (38.1) *14th last week
  • Tyrese Haliburton is 55th in the country *(5th in the Big 12) in Steal Percentage (3.83) *43rd last week
  • Tyrese Haliburton is 4th in the country in Offensive Box Plus Minus (8.9) *1st last week
  • Tyrese Haliburton is 6th in the country in APG (7.4) *5th last week

**no other ISU player is ranked in the top 100 of any major statistical category.**

  • Tyrese Haliburton (39 MPG)—> 20.9 USG%/26.4 PER WS: 3.1 (D+/-): [3.0]

*last week: (34.5 MPG) (21.4/29.8) WS: 2.9 (D+/-): [2.6]

  • Prentiss Nixon (32 MPG)—> 18.4 USG%/9.7 PER WS: 0.8 (D+/-): [0.7]

*(23.5 MPG) (17.9/14.3) WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.2]

  • Rasir Bolton (29.5 MPG)—> 25.0 USG%/16.6 PER WS: 1.5 (D+/-): [-0.8]

*(30.5 MPG) (25.0/18.5) WS: 1.6 (D+/-): [-0.8]

  • Michael Jacobson (22.5 MPG)—> 18.0 USG%/PER 14.5 WS: 1.0 (D+/-): [0.4]

*(19.5 MPG (17.9/14.3) WS: 0.9 (D+/-): [0.2]

  • Tre Jackson (22.5 MPG)—> 14.1 USG%/7.8 PER WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [2.0]

*(21 MPG) (14.2/8.1) WS: 0.3 (D+/-): [1.9]

  • Solomon Young (15.5 MPG)—> 21.5 USG%/19.1 PER WS: 1.0 (D+/-): [1.2]

*(12.5 MPG) (22.3/19.5) WS: 1.0 (D+/-): [0.9]

  • Terrence Lewis (15 MPG)—> 20.4 USG%/16.9 PER WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [-2.3]

*(11.5 MPG) (21.0/19.9) WS: 0.4 (D+/-): [-2.2]

  • George Conditt IV (13 MPG)—> 22.9 USG%/27.0 PER WS: 1.5 (D+/-): [6.2]

*(21 MPG) (22.3/29.1) WS: 1.6 (D+/-): [6.4]

  • Zion Griffin (7 MPG)—> 18.4 USG%/15.9 PER WS: 0.5 (D+/-): [0.2]

*(15.5 MPG) (18.0/15.6) WS: 0.5 (D+/-): [0.2]

  • Caleb Grill (6 MPG)—> 14.1 USG%/7.7 PER WS: 0.2 (D+/-): [1.0]

*(8.5 MPG) (13.4/6.8) WS: 0.2 (D+/-): [1.1]

Jan. 21st: Iowa State (8-9) (1-4) vs. Oklahoma State (9-8) (0-5)

I’m just gonna go out and say it, if we win this game I don’t know what is going to happen and I’m kind of scared to find out.

Oklahoma State has been having a lot of the same problems as Iowa State. They’re both very talented teams, but both struggle with consistency. The Cowboys are rated as the 79th overall team in the country on KenPom’s rankings. They are 175th offensively and 31st defensively. So this shows while both teams have a similar record, they have very contrasting styles of play.

Oklahoma State is a very balanced team scoring wise, as Lindy Watters III is leading the team with only 11.9 points per game. I hate to say it, but I think the only way for Iowa State to win is if they knock down some jump shots for once like they did against Oklahoma.

Jan. 25th: Iowa State (8-9) @ #4 Auburn (15-2)

On paper this might look like a tough matchup for Iowa State, but I will be optimistic and tell you that this is a winnable game. Yes, Auburn is one of the best teams in the country. Yes, they will be angry, coming off of a two-game loosing streak. Yes, the game is at Auburn, and Yes, Iowa State might suck… but.

Auburn is surprisingly rated as only the 26th overall team on KenPom.com’s rankings. Maybe their mediocre non-conference schedule is catching up to them? They’re rated 42nd offensively and 29th defensively.

The Tigers are also a very balanced team with guards Samir Doughty and Isaac Okoro as their two leading scorers, averaging 14.6 and 12.8 respectively. The Cyclones might have to play a near perfect game to squeak out a win, but don’t count it out of the picture.

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Author:

tonyliebert

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