For the first time this season, the New England Patriots Super Bowl chances are in question.
The Baltimore Ravens beat the NFL odds when they beat the Patriots in Week 9. They 37 to 20 victory over one of the best defensive teams in the first half of a football season ever marks the Ravens as the real deal.
Prior to Week 9’s victory, the Baltimore Ravens were +1800 to win Super Bowl LIV. The number implies that they only had a 5.3 percent chance of getting rings. After beating the Patriots they have jumped to +950, nearly having their odds and doubling their probability to 9.5 %. If you have a 10 percent chance out of 32 teams, then your odds are actually pretty good.
That said, the Ravens are still eclipsed by the Kansas City Chiefs, the San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, and of course, the very same New England Patriots that they just beat.
As we enter Week 10, the Kansas City Chiefs are 6-3, a record that wasn’t expected when the season started. However, Patrick Mahomes got injured and the season started to fall apart. But he is looking to return and fans expect him back against the Titans on November 10th. But should he come back or wait for another week? Moore is starting to run the offense well and the defense is playing well. But an unexpected loss to the Titans could have serious consequences.
The 49ers are 8-0. Saying that out loud is strange. It almost doesn’t want to come off the tongue. But can they put together an undefeated season? They have a tough opponent in the Seahawks on Monday Night Football then they get a little bit of a break while facing the Arizona Cardinals. After that their schedule picks up. The take on the Green Bay Packers, the Baltimore Ravens, and New Orleans Saints back to back. They get a spiraling Falcons in Week 15 and close the season with tough games against the LA Rams and the Seahawks in Seattle. So, it’s easy to imagine the Niners taking a loss in the back half of the season, but as long as the losses don’t come at the hands of the Seahawks, they’ll have the NFC West pretty much locked in.
The Saints managed to only lose one game after Drew Brees went out with an injury early on. At 7-1 they sit firmly on the chest of the NFC South like a schoolyard bully, jabbing their finger into the forehead of the rest of the division. At +500, they are the closest team on the odds boards to the Pats and have an implied Super Bowl probability of 16.7 percent. Drew Brees showed that he is feeling good against the Cardinals, throwing for 373 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. Their toughest test will come against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14. But it’s hard to imagine this team missing the playoffs, the Panthers would have to win out and beat the Saints twice.
New England’s remaining schedule is not easy, though there are a couple of easy games. They still have to face the Cowboys, the Texans, and the Chiefs, which are all dangerous teams. The Chiefs will certainly have Patrick Mahomes back under center and could end up being the Pats toughest test left. With the way the Patriots defense is playing it is nearly impossible that they miss the playoffs. They would have to lose a few games while the Bills ran the table including a direct loss to Buffalo and heck they’d still be in wildcard contention. Once the Patriots are in the postseason all bets are off. They have so much experience that it’s not likely they’ll get knocked out early. The AFC Championship seems like the minimum they’ll achieve this season. At +250, the Pats are the odds on favorites to win the Super Bowl with a 28.6% probability.
Chances are we see the Patriots under the big lights on a February Sunday once again.